This Chief Economist Thinks Slow Rent Growth May Have Bottomed Out

When inflation in the U.S. reached its high point about two years ago, it was prevalent across nearly all categories—in grocery aisles, at the gas station and, perhaps most noticeably, in monthly rent checks.

Today, as price growth continues to moderate for many goods and services, stubborn housing costs remain a key sticking point for the Fed as they work toward their oft-repeated 2% inflation target before cutting interest rates. As Bloomberg noted recently, “hotter-than-expected readings for [housing inflation]…are a big reason why the central bank is hesitant to cut rates.”

To wit, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, the Fed’s main measuring stick for inflation, shelter prices climbed 0.4% for a third straight month in April. Notably, a key part of the CPI’s shelter index, the so-called “Rent of Primary Residence” index, was once again robust in April, up 5.4% year-over-year.